Monetising ChatGPT-5
Transparency label: AI-only
The newsletter “GPT-5 Set the Stage for Ad Monetization and the SuperApp“ from SemiAnalysis outlines OpenAI’s strategic pivot towards monetising its vast free user base, a move largely enabled by the GPT-5 release and its new “router” system.
GPT-5, while underwhelming for many “power users,” is designed with a different audience in mind: the 700 million-plus free ChatGPT users who use the service infrequently and remain unmonetised. This group represents OpenAI’s largest untapped opportunity.
At the heart of GPT-5 is the “One United System”—a real-time router that decides which model to deploy based on the conversation’s type, complexity, required tools, and user intent. By learning continuously from user signals such as model switching, preference rates, and measured correctness, the router improves over time. It enables lower-cost usage through mini-versions of models while, for the first time, giving many free users access to advanced “thinking” or Chain of Thought reasoning.
This router is more than a technical upgrade; it is the foundation for monetising free users. Its ability to understand query intent paves the way for assigning commercial value to interactions. That vision is reinforced by strategic hires, notably Fidji Simo as CEO of Applications, whose experience at Facebook and Instacart includes successfully monetising high-intent internet properties through ad products and agent-based checkout. Sam Altman’s own tone has shifted from dismissing ads to acknowledging the potential for transaction-based or affiliate revenue in ways that could avoid intrusive advertising.
A central part of the monetisation strategy is what SemiAnalysis calls an “agentic SuperApp.” This would see ChatGPT acting as an active purchasing agent, handling not just recommendations but full-service transactions in areas like groceries, e-commerce, flights, and hotels. Unlike traditional search advertising, large language models have marginal costs: more computation can yield more valuable results. The router could allocate substantial resources to high-value queries, such as researching and contacting top local lawyers, because the potential referral revenue could run into thousands of dollars. In this model, revenue would come from transaction fees or ad take rates on purchases, not subscriptions.
Elements of this future are already in development. ChatGPT is integrating with Gmail and Google Calendar, benchmarking tool use in industries such as telecoms and retail, and building towards partnerships with platforms like Stripe, Shopify, Booking.com, and Instacart. Such collaborations could offer companies lower customer acquisition costs, making the model attractive to partners.
If successful, OpenAI could evolve ChatGPT into a consumer SuperApp, competing directly with Google, Meta, and Amazon by bypassing traditional search funnels and ad-tech ecosystems—an ambitious path that, if executed, could reshape both AI usage and online commerce.